The following question was asked on the quora.com forum: “If Ukraine surrendered, would the war be over and Russia would just take over and that’s that?”
The responses were interesting and balanced. I sample some comments:
- And, as I write this? Ten thousand Russian soldiers have been killed as well. Hundreds of tanks, destroyed. Thousands of vehicles, fuel tanks, airplanes, taken out. At this pace, casualties for Russia in the coming weeks will be catastrophic. Ukraine, too, will suffer. And by the time Putin finally has his Pyrrhic victory, perhaps months from now… he’ll rule over a traumatized, battle-hardened, half-empty nation of professional Russia-haters. Ukraine is his Afghanistan and it will be his undoing.
- May Ukraine be the final proof that—from the start and ever since—Putin has been nothing more or less than a KGB thug. He epitomizes my summation of the Soviet Union’s collapse
- Putin needs only an agreement that NATO will stop arming Ukraine and stop moving troops close to the territory of Russia. This is the reason for the outbreak of war. NATO has been arming Ukraine in the last few years and it has become dangerous for Russia. In December 2021, Putin appealed to the European Union with a request to conclude an agreement on the borders of armaments. European countries refused him and instead started shouting about the outbreak of war in the news. This is not a war with Ukraine, but a shackled war with NATO and USA in Ukraine. When NATO pulls back troops and tops arming Ukraine, Putin will withdraw troops.
- These losses shown all over the media is a part of the propaganda. These are not true figures. In reality, it's less. Russia is doing everything carefully. They could use such weapons which could destroy things quickly, but they are being careful about civilians. Of course, sometimes some operations can kill civilians which they can nothing about. Also don't forget civilians also have taken up arms. Unlike US, bombed everything in Syria, Iraq …etc. They destroyed everything and everyone. Today, West is being hypocrite, talking about human rights violations and look how Putin is like Hitler. They should first look themselves in the mirror.
Why did this conflict happen?
There are a number of factors that led to this conflict: (a) The ‘collective west’ suffers from dearth of leadership – look at the US, Germany and UK for example; (b) Europe has outsourced its foreign policy to the US which is thousands of miles away, a policy that clearly is intended to keeping Europe subservient to the US; (c) Europe intention that its security should come at the expense of the security of Russia; (d) the overthrow of Ukraine’s democratically elected president and replacement with a nit witted puppet by the US; (e) Leaders in the west not living to their promises, acting fraudulently in dealing with Russians and their consequent loss of credibility and trust of the Russians; (f) NATOs expansion westwards contrary to all assurances made to the Russians (Soviet Union) following the fall of the Berlin wall; and (g) America’s gangsterism and abuse of its dwindling hegemony.
Why is only Vladimir Putin being vilified while the culprits are many?
Simple, Propaganda is an effective weapon during war. Governments are in bed with the media and the latter has lost its objectivity in reporting. The media will do what the government says, report what the government says, and sensor out what the government does not like. so much so that when a government has an agenda, it will use the media to whip public emotion to the fullest and bring the public on board. The public, so cheated will support the government’s agenda thinking it is a genuine agenda. For example, the invasion of Iraq was supported by the American public who ahs been cheated that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction. And so was the illegal invasion of Libya; the American and European citizens were brought on board because they were cheated it was a just war.
In the case of the Ukraine-Russia conflict the facts and truth have been hidden from the citizens of Western countries. The western governments and corporate media have persistently pained Vladimir Putin as an evil man, and that the conflict is has an imperial dimension and do not point out their role in making events that let to this conflict. In other worths these countries bear larger culpability for this conflict than does Russia and President Vladimir Putin. In fact, Vladimir Putin is clearly a Saint compared with Tony Blair, George Bush and Barrack Obama! And the vilification of Putin and the ostracization of Russians continues to an unprecedented level. The ICC conduct for example, it politically motivated and for this it has been called out for its hypocrisy.
What has been the impact of the conflict?
On the battle ground, tens of thousands of Russian and Ukrainian soldiers have been killed, millions of people have been displaced, and others killed, livelihoods lost, the environment denigrated, towns and villages decimated and infrastructure destroyed.
The impacts of this conflict on the global scale have been analysed by political pundits, economists, environmentalists, humanitarians, sports analysts and so on. The analyses have been either partisan or objective depending on the inclination of the analyst.
1. Humanitarian needs resultant from this conflict cannot be overemphasised. Millions of Ukrainians and Russians have been displaced forcing them to seek refuge in neighbouring countries that have had to bear the consequent of overbudgeted resources. The remaining populations have to cope with constant shelling, destroyed infrastructure and the resultant shortage of services and goods.
2. Politically there has occurred a rift between countries in the so called the global north and global south with the former isolating Russia and the latter being accommodative of Russia. Countries in the global south have had to endure bullying by America its allies who have demanded that they stop dealing with Russia or face sanctions.
The hypocrisy of the Collective west has been singled out by India’s Minister of External Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar who has accused European countries of considering European problems to be global problems and problems in other places not to be global problems. The hypocrisy of the collective west has further been manifest in the way they have approached matters arising from the conflict. They take a stance when it suits them and change as soon as it does not suit them anymore. They have attacked and destroyed of other nations and supported genocides in others: Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemen to name but a few. They have killed presidents in some countries: Patrice Lumumba of Former Zaire – now the Democratic Republic of Cong, Thomas Sankara of Burkina Fasso, Sadam Hussein of Iraq and Muammar Gadafi of Libya. Now they are openly calling for the killing of President Vladimir Putin. These people have no shame. They lack moral authority to call out Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and must not lecture other countries on any such matter.
They claim to espouse democracy but do not practice it. They overthrew the elected presented of Ukraine and replaced him with their own puppet; they find it difficult to work with Victor Orban who was democratically elected in Hungary just because his party promotes conservative Hungarian values; they but do not allow other countries to make their own choices and demand of them to kowtow their line.
This hypocrisy has been outrightly rejected by countries in the global south majority of who have either abstained from or voted against resolutions brought to the United Nations General Assembly against Russia.
3. The environment has not been spared either. The blowing up of the Nord team pipeline last September spilled millions of gallons of methane gas into the Baltic sea. In addition both sides have expended huge amounts of explosives into the environment cawing unquantified amount of degradation and destruction.
4. The sanctions imposed on Russia have disrupted supply chain resulting in food and energy shortages thus impacting on economies of developing countries and throwing their populations into deeper poverty. Europe itself is reeling from the burden of extremely high cost of energy that has resulted in the closing of factories; so much that the EU is facing de-industrialisation.
What is the solution?
It is necessary to take a pause and reflect on the root causes of this war and how it could have been prevented, then genuinely hold a dialogue to stop it, address its root cause and prevent future wars. This can only be done with sincerity among all the stakeholders. The current chest thumping and finger pointing by some leaders, coupled with their selfish interests prevents a genuine return to peace talks.
China has been neutral to the conflict and has made a proposal to end the conflict. Chinese President Xi Jinping has already met Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the conflict and made a twelve point proposal that the latter accepted. These are: (1) respecting the sovereignty of all countries; (2) abandoning the cold war mentality; (3) ceasing hostilities; (4) resuming peace talks; (5) resolving the humanitarian crisis; (6) protecting civilians and prisoners of war; (7) keeping nuclear power plants safe; (8) reducing strategic risks; (9) facilitating grain exports; (10) stopping unilateral sanctions; (11) keeping industrial and supply chains stable; and (12 promoting post-conflict reconstruction.
European leaders should be on the forefront of this effort and support the efforts made by China. Turkey and Israel should be involved as they previously had made efforts at brokering peace. American leadership have only two options: (a) keep off the talks and stay out of Ukraine; their hands are too dirty to be trusted. Their profiteering from global conflicts puts them at the heart of all major conflicts including the current one. The US and the UK in particular have been on record rejecting an end to the conflict and preventing negotiations. (b) come to the negotiating table with clean hands and sincerely (unfortunately American governments are never sincere) seek to address the root cause of this conflict that may case future ones.
The US and its allies must be willing to listen to other countries and engage countries in the global south with respect and consideration because these are sovereign nations that have a say in matters going on around the globe. These countries have rightly called for an end to this conflict and a return to negotiations.
